Revisiting when China’s economy will pass the USA

I noted in 2011, the World Bank/IMF figures for PPP were wrong based upon 2005 numbers that did not properly survey the rural areas. The World Bank did adjust PPP and increased China PPP by about 25%. China thus officially passed the USA in GDP on a PPP basis.

In 2011, I had indicated that China would pass USA on a nominal basis by 2019. However, China’s growth has slowed more and the currency has been weakened relative to the US dollar. It was 6.05 to 1 US dollar at the end of 2013 and beginning of 2014. At the end of 2015, the yuan is 6.5 to 1 US dollar. China surpassing on a nominal basis is now delayed until 2022-2027.
XE.com – USD/CNY Chart

China’s GDP at the end of 2011 (including Hong Kong and Macau) was $7.8 trillion.

At the end of 2014, China’s economy was 63.65 trillion yuan. This was not including Hong Kong and Macau.
China’s GDP growth slowed in Q3 2015. China’s economy posted a 6.9-percent growth year on year in the third quarter of 2015, lower than 7 percent in the first half of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

In the first three quarters of the year, GDP hit 48.78 trillion yuan (7.68 trillion U.S. dollars), up 6.9 percent year on year, according to the NBS. China should thus have about 70 trillion yuan GDP for 2015.
This will be about 10.7 trillion US $. Add in Hong Kong and Macua and it is about $11 trillion.
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